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Blogger Elias Muhanna, man behind the blog "Qifa Nabki".

Elias Muhanna, the man behind the blog Qifa Nabki, is a Lebanese blogger whose commentary has appeared in The National, Foreign Policy and other publications. In the run-up to the Lebanese parliamentary elections, Muhanna and his blog were cited and quoted widely in both the blogosphere and the mainstream media. His posts provide unique analysis of Lebanon’s politics for readers around the world, with witty reflections on the possibilities for cabinet formations, and even revealing taxi conversations.

Muhanna, a PhD candidate in Near Eastern Studies at Harvard University, sat down with NOW to discuss Qifa Nabki and what the elections mean for Lebanon.

What is your background?

Elias Muhanna: My family lives here, I’m Lebanese and my mother is American.  [I] lived here during the beginning of the civil war and then my family left in the early 80s, and I grew up mostly between Lebanon and Cyprus, so living in Cyprus but coming back and forth during the war.  [I] went to college in the US, and… am doing graduate school now. [After I get my PhD,] I’d like to get an academic job and work as a professor, that’s my goal… if I could get a job at AUB, I wouldn’t turn it down; that would be great.

How long have you been writing the blog?

Muhanna: I began the blog in the beginning of October [2008]…my dissertation process began last year…the research for the dissertation began roughly around the time I started the blog.

How did you get into blogging?

Muhanna: I had spent a lot of time reading a lot of blogs [about Lebanon and Syria].  Arab-Israeli stuff too… I disagreed with a lot of what people were saying in the comment sections, and I sort of wanted to debate the issues, and I ended up making a lot of friends… and discovering that many of the contributors were extremely intelligent and had a lot of arguments that I never even encountered or considered.  There are certain things that we would still disagree about, but a lot of those people I now count as close friends, and we are respectful of each other’s positions...  So, I did a lot of that kind of thing and I thought I’d like to start my own.

What’s the story with the logo?

Muhanna: It’s a detail from a painting that I discovered and I really liked...  Since then, I felt kind of sheepish about the fact that it had become the head of Qifa Nabki’s blog and so I actually got in contact with the artist to see if he would be willing to sell me that painting… and so this summer I will actually, hopefully, be able to purchase [it].

What does Qifa Nabki mean?

Muhanna: Qifa Nabki is the first two words of maybe the most famous pre-Islamic classical Arabic poem, and it means, literally “Halt, you two, and let us weep.”  It’s sort of the iconic image that begins a lot of classical Arabic poetry, where the poet, this desert nomad, is traveling through the desert with some companions and he happens upon the place where his beloved’s tribe had been encamped and she and her tribe have since moved on… He says to his companions: “Let us stop and let us weep for the memory of a beloved,” and it became a standard trope of a lot of this poetry, and to anyone who has studied Arabic poetry, it’s instantly recognizable, so it’s almost like calling a blog “To be or not to be.”

How popular is the site?

Muhanna: It began with a smattering of hits, and gradually over time – I think because of the elections, there’s a lot of interest, and these things just build, I guess.  Every month there have been more and more hits.

What do you think about the media situation in Lebanon today?

Muhanna: I wish there were more responsible media outlets providing more balanced criticism on both sides of the aisle.  You can’t find that anywhere.  The pro-March 14 media are strident in their support of March 14, [and] the pro-opposition media is incredibly partisan as well… nobody seems to be looking at both sides and criticizing them in a balanced fashion. That’s what I’m aiming for on the blog, but I don’t know how successful I’ve been.

Do you think these were Lebanon’s first free elections since 1975?

Muhanna: I definitely think this is the first free election in decades. To me, 2005 was a one-issue election; it was basically a referendum on Syria.  It was run using the 2000 electoral law, which had so many problems in it, and then the way the cabinet was formed and the way the various players participated… it was a disaster. This election, although it was still very much waged on the basis of sectarian language and clan… there was sort of a more issue-based approach, even if the issues were only a couple, like Hezbollah’s weapons and the state vs. reform… But more importantly, there was real competition. We didn’t know who would win this election, and that’s a big thing.

Does the opposition view the results as a backlash against their policies or demography?

Muhanna: I wouldn’t be surprised that some people would think that [Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel] Aoun was hurt by his alliance [with Hezbollah]. It’s clear from the numbers that the places in which he won, he didn’t win by nearly as much. I think over the next couple of weeks both sides are going to feel each other out… Nobody really wants to rush into a standoff or a deal; they want to get a sense of each other’s red lines, and try to come up, if a veto [the obstructing-third vote] is not in the offering, some other kind of thing.

What about the calm on elections day?

Muhanna: Another thing that Paul Salem said yesterday [at a Carnegie Center post-election debriefing] was “the fact that in an Arab country, ordinary citizens could determine who is going to govern and who is going to sit in the opposition, all on a quiet Sunday, is a pretty remarkable thing.”  I think everybody was shocked by just how amazingly low-key it was.  Last weekend was totally chill.  There wasn’t even that much celebration afterward.

Is there a battle over the obstructing veto looming?

Muhanna: As of right now, it’s not looking like there’s going to be a huge battle over the veto...which is kind of weird.  What was it about this particular result that convinced people to climb down a little bit? If March 14 had won by 70 seats instead of 71, would [March 8] have said, “oh well we’re going to go after the veto.”

Why has Hezbollah acted so conciliatory?

Muhanna: I don’t know, that’s a really good question… There are a lot of factors in play. First of all, [the veto] is totally unconstitutional. In the past there was a debate whose basic premise was when Hezbollah joined the government, the Siniora government back in 2005, they did so under an agreement that was made, under the cabinet decree… Now the situation is totally different and Hezbollah understands that.  March 14 didn’t need Hezbollah’s help to get elected, nor did they need the help of the president or independents. They were a non-factor.  So it’s difficult to make the case now that you’re for a veto when there is no constitutional basis for it. So I think this is why they are being more conciliatory.  Who knows, maybe behind closed doors they have no intention of giving it up.

Is March 14 in a stronger place?  Will Saad Hariri be prime minister?

Muhanna: The position is his to take.  If he wants to be prime minister, there is no alternative to him.  Everybody will accept him.  I just don’t know if he wants to be prime minister…  I still have a feeling that [Tripoli MP Najib] Mikati is going to step in.  Mikati played a really excellent role in the transitional cabinet between when Omar Karami’s government fell back in 2005, and when March 14 won... And the fact that he has very strong ties to both Damascus and to Riyadh makes him an ideal fit for this period that we’re in right now. He’s incredibly eloquent; he’s just a very good speaker...  It all comes down to the advice that Saad Hariri is getting.  If he’s getting really good advice, I think he will choose Mikati and they have to start reaching out to the FPM.

This interview was originally published on NOW Lebanon on June 10, 2009.